Title: Causal relationship between inbound tourism and exports of goods in Portugal: evidence from cointegration and Granger causality tests

Authors: Ana Madaleno; Celeste Eusébio; Celeste Varum

Addresses: Department of Economics, Management and Industrial Engineering, University of Aveiro, Campus Universitário de Santiago, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal ' Department of Economics, Management and Industrial Engineering, University of Aveiro, Campus Universitário de Santiago, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal ' Department of Economics, Management and Industrial Engineering, University of Aveiro, Campus Universitário de Santiago, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal

Abstract: This paper analyses the short- and long-run relationship between inbound tourism and total exports of goods in general, and exports of agro-food products in particular. An empirical study was conducted using monthly data on inbound tourism, total exports of goods, and exports of agro-food products for the period between 2000 and 2012, in Portugal. The results reveal that inbound tourism and exports of agro-food products are cointegrated. Therefore a long-run equilibrium relationship between the variables can be inferred. The Granger causality test results suggest that inbound tourism in Portugal stimulates growth of exports in general. Furthermore, exports of goods and exports of agro-food products also stimulate inbound tourism. Our empirical findings provide important policy implications concerning international tourism and trade.

Keywords: inbound tourism; exports; agro-food products; cointegration; Granger causality; Portugal; international tourism; trade.

DOI: 10.1504/GBER.2016.078676

Global Business and Economics Review, 2016 Vol.18 No.5, pp.567 - 586

Received: 26 Aug 2014
Accepted: 06 Feb 2015
Published online: 01 Sep 2016 *

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