Title: Numerical weather prediction or stochastic modelling: an objective criterion of choice for the global radiation forecasting
Authors: Cyril Voyant; Gilles Notton; Christophe Paoli; Marie-Laure Nivet; Marc Muselli; Kahina Dahmani
Addresses: University of Corsica, CNRS UMR SPE 6134, Ajaccio, France; Hospital of Castelluccio, Radiophysics Unit, Ajaccio, France ' University of Corsica, CNRS UMR SPE 6134, Ajaccio, France ' CNRS UMR SPE 6134, University of Corsica, 20000 Ajaccio (Vignola), France ' CNRS UMR SPE 6134, University of Corsica, 20000 Ajaccio (Vignola), France ' University of Corsica, CNRS UMR SPE 6134, Ajaccio, France ' Laboratory of Energy Mechanic and Conversion Systems, University Houary Boumédiène, Algier, Algeria
Abstract: Numerous methods exist and were developed for global radiation forecasting. The two most popular types are the numerical weather predictions (NWPs) and the predictions using stochastic approaches. We propose to compute a parameter noted χ constructed in part from the mutual information which is a quantity that measures the mutual dependence of two variables. Both of these are calculated with the objective to establish the more relevant method between NWP and stochastic models concerning the current problem.
Keywords: components; mutual information; stochastic modelling; global radiation forecasting; numerical weather prediction; NWP; numerical simulation; weather forecasting; solar energy; solar power.
International Journal of Energy Technology and Policy, 2016 Vol.12 No.3, pp.209 - 219
Available online: 27 Jun 2016 *Full-text access for editors Access for subscribers Purchase this article Comment on this article