Title: Numerical weather prediction or stochastic modelling: an objective criterion of choice for the global radiation forecasting

Authors: Cyril Voyant; Gilles Notton; Christophe Paoli; Marie-Laure Nivet; Marc Muselli; Kahina Dahmani

Addresses: University of Corsica, CNRS UMR SPE 6134, Ajaccio, France; Hospital of Castelluccio, Radiophysics Unit, Ajaccio, France ' University of Corsica, CNRS UMR SPE 6134, Ajaccio, France ' CNRS UMR SPE 6134, University of Corsica, 20000 Ajaccio (Vignola), France ' CNRS UMR SPE 6134, University of Corsica, 20000 Ajaccio (Vignola), France ' University of Corsica, CNRS UMR SPE 6134, Ajaccio, France ' Laboratory of Energy Mechanic and Conversion Systems, University Houary Boumédiène, Algier, Algeria

Abstract: Numerous methods exist and were developed for global radiation forecasting. The two most popular types are the numerical weather predictions (NWPs) and the predictions using stochastic approaches. We propose to compute a parameter noted χ constructed in part from the mutual information which is a quantity that measures the mutual dependence of two variables. Both of these are calculated with the objective to establish the more relevant method between NWP and stochastic models concerning the current problem.

Keywords: components; mutual information; stochastic modelling; global radiation forecasting; numerical weather prediction; NWP; numerical simulation; weather forecasting; solar energy; solar power.

DOI: 10.1504/IJETP.2016.077347

International Journal of Energy Technology and Policy, 2016 Vol.12 No.3, pp.209 - 219

Received: 29 Sep 2013
Accepted: 21 Jan 2014
Published online: 29 Jun 2016 *

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