Title: Seismic risk assessment of an industrial plant struck by the Emilia 2012 earthquakes

Authors: Fabio Petruzzelli

Addresses: AXA MATRIX Risk Consultants, Milan, Italy

Abstract: This paper presents the quantitative seismic loss assessment of an industrial plant and compares it to the real losses observed during the Emilia 2012 earthquakes. The analysis was performed by means of the FRAME software, which allows a rapid computation of seismic risk on probabilistic basis. The comparison between the estimated losses and the adjusted ones, although understandably questionable for the consistency of a probabilistic estimate of the loss observed in a single event, is believed to represent an opportunity for a critical analysis of strengths and limits of application of predictive estimations of earthquake-induced losses in the industrial field. Although some critical aspects related to the selection and the application of fragility and consequence functions exist, results show that that loss estimates can be well correlated to the adjusted ones, thus encouraging the adoption of probabilistic approaches as a support for informed decision making.

Keywords: industrial facilities; earthquake losses; seismic risk assessment; precast structures; fragility curve; industrial plants; earthquakes; Italy; loss assessment; loss estimation; probabilistic risk assessment.

DOI: 10.1504/IJFE.2016.075995

International Journal of Forensic Engineering, 2016 Vol.3 No.1/2, pp.146 - 163

Received: 02 Oct 2015
Accepted: 10 Jan 2016

Published online: 20 Apr 2016 *

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