Title: Research on CO₂ emissions from China's electric power industry based on system dynamics model

Authors: Wei Sun; Jingmin Wang; Yadi Ren

Addresses: School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Baoding, China ' School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Baoding, China ' School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Baoding, China

Abstract: In China, over 40% of national CO₂ emissions originate from the power industry, which plays a vital role in emissions reduction. In this paper, we present a system dynamics model based on dynamic interactions among system influential components to analyse CO₂ emissions from power electric power industry under three designed scenarios. Simulations results indicate that the total power CO₂ emissions show an increasing trend on the whole. Due to the implementation of low-carbon electricity measures, the growth rate of power CO₂ emissions in low-carbon development scenario and intensive low-carbon development scenario is much lower than that of basic scenario. A 13.19% reduction of the power CO₂ emissions can be achieved in the year 2020 based on low carbon scenario and 27.53% reduction on intensive low carbon scenario. The projections demonstrate the effect of the system dynamic model in serving as a decision making tool in the low carbon electric industry process. Some instructive transition measures to low carbon power industry have provided for power industry's carbon emission profiles.

Keywords: power industry; carbon dioxide; CO2; carbon emissions; system dynamics; modelling; low carbon development; electricity industry; China; simulation.

DOI: 10.1504/IJISE.2016.075204

International Journal of Industrial and Systems Engineering, 2016 Vol.22 No.4, pp.423 - 439

Received: 08 Apr 2014
Accepted: 13 Jul 2014
Published online: 08 Mar 2016 *

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