Title: Developing scenarios to support interactive policy analysis: experiences from two policy analysis studies
Authors: Odette A.W.T. Van De Riet, Mirjam Van Het Loo, James P. Kahan
Addresses: RAND Europe, Newtonweg 1, 2333 CP Leiden, The Netherlands and Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5015, 2600 GA Delft, The Netherlands. ' RAND Europe, Newtonweg 1, 2333 CP Leiden, The Netherlands. ' RAND Europe, Newtonweg 1, 2333 CP Leiden, The Netherlands
Abstract: Scenarios alert policymakers and stakeholders to emerging problems and provide a reference point for long-term strategic planning. To be useful, scenarios have to be both scientifically credible and policy-relevant. A wide range of perceptions have to be taken into account in the scenario-building process – as policymaking is not or no longer characterised by |the choice| of |the policymaker| and policymaking processes have become more and more open. The question is how to deal with divergent perceptions and interests. The traditional scenario approach does not address these issues – it was originally designed for authorative top-down planning. In this paper, we explore, based on two case studies, what demands a multi-actor policy setting puts on the scenario-building process.
Keywords: scenario development; interactive policy analysis; multi-actor policy settings; strategic planning; long-term planning; policy making.
International Journal of Technology, Policy and Management, 2005 Vol.5 No.2, pp.132 - 145
Published online: 31 Jul 2005 *Full-text access for editors Access for subscribers Purchase this article Comment on this article