Title: Variability analysis of hydrometeorological parameters under a climate change scenario in Northern Greece
Authors: E.A. Baltas
Addresses: Department of Water Resources Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, 15780, 5, Iroon Polytechniou, Athens, Greece
Abstract: In this work an attempt is undertaken to analyse the impacts of climate change in crucial hydrometeorological parameters affecting the agriculture production yield. As study area, the Siatista sub-basin of Aliakmon river was selected, located in Northern Greece. More particularly the regional hydrological cycle was evaluated on river basin spatial scale to assess regional impacts and variability. A monthly conceptual water balance model was calibrated, using historical hydrometeorological data covering a 30-year period. This model was applied to estimate runoff values at the outlet of the sub-basin incorporating the output data of a climate change scenario. The selected climate change scenario is United Kingdom Transient Run (UKTR) which is a transient scenario, referring to year 2080. The results show that the mean annual runoff, mean winter, as well as mean summer runoff values, will be reduced. The reduction ranges from 15% to 65%. The actual evapotranspiration in the winter months will increase (the range is from 6 to 800%), while the opposite occurs in the summer months (the range is from 38 to 69%) due to reduced runoff.
Keywords: runoff; potential evapotranspiration; transient scenario; climate change; water balance; variability analysis; hydrometeorology; Greece; agricultural production; agriculture; production yield; regional hydrological cycle; modelling.
International Journal of Global Environmental Issues, 2016 Vol.15 No.1/2, pp.70 - 80
Received: 04 Aug 2014
Accepted: 04 Feb 2015
Published online: 24 Jan 2016 *