Title: A preliminary assessment of observed and projected trends in the diurnal temperature ranges over South India under SRES A1B scenario
Authors: Dhanya Praveen; Ramachandran Andimuthu; Radhapriya Parthasarathy; Thirumurugan Perumal
Addresses: Centre for Climate Change and Adapation Research, Anna University, Guindy, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India ' Centre for Climate Change and Adapation Research, Anna University, Guindy, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India ' Centre for Climate Change and Adapation Research, Anna University, Guindy, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India ' Centre for Climate Change and Adapation Research, Anna University, Guindy, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India
Abstract: In the present study, the PRECIS, a regional climate model, is employed to simulate the baseline (1970-2000) and future 2071-2100 (2080s) maximum, minimum and diurnal temperature range changes under SRES A1B scenario over the Kancheepuram district of Tamil Nadu, South India. A comparison of the simulated baseline results with observation data acquired from IMD show that PRECIS can well simulate the local distribution characteristics of diurnal temperature range over the study area with a correlation coefficient (R2) value of 0.948 with 1% significance level. Analyses of the simulated results in the 2080s under SRES A1B scenario relative to the baseline shows that there would be an overall increasing trend in the maximum and minimum temperatures over the study area and the warming amplitude in the north, west and interior parts are projected to be greater than in the east coastal areas. Sen's slope estimator supported by the Man Kendal test shows that the diurnal temperature range in the 2080s under SRES A1B scenario relative to the baseline are projected to decrease annually by -0.015°C and a statistically significant decrease of −0.029°C during the southwest monsoon season in the overall study area.
Keywords: PRECIS; climate change; diurnal temperature range; DTR; regional climate modelling; dynamical downscaling; SRES A1B scenario; India; simulation.
International Journal of Global Warming, 2016 Vol.9 No.1, pp.1 - 17
Received: 28 Nov 2013
Accepted: 07 Apr 2014
Published online: 22 Jan 2016 *