Title: Anthropogenic influence on hydrological response in Beijing over nearly 20 years

Authors: Jing Zhang; Binbin Guo; Yuming Liu

Addresses: The Key Lab of Resource Environment and GIS of Beijing, Capital Normal University, #105 West 3rd Ring Road North, Beijing, 100048, China ' The Key Lab of Resource Environment and GIS of Beijing, Capital Normal University, #105 West 3rd Ring Road North, Beijing, 100048, China ' The Key Lab of Resource Environment and GIS of Beijing, Capital Normal University, #105 West 3rd Ring Road North, Beijing, 100048, China

Abstract: In this study, a SWAT model (soil and water assessment tool) was calibrated and validated to analyse the Guishui River Basin, China to simulate the hydrological response to human activities. The parameter sensitivity analysis is processed and the uncertainty analysis is evaluated by SUFI-2 (sequential uncertainty fitting program). The reasonable results indicated that human activities had remarkable effects on runoff. The direct effects influenced runoff much more than indirect effects. The indirect effects increased runoff, especially and dramatically during the flood season. The direct effects decreased the runoff coefficient and more obviously during the flood season. The study finds that urbanisation continues to displace more farmland while in turn farmland encroaches on forests and grassland. The increasingly impervious surface has limited the ability of humans to conserve water in the area. Direct and indirect effects occur through different mechanisms, and direct effects play the most important role in changes runoff rates.

Keywords: anthropogenic influence; direct effects; indirect effects; hydrological response; runoff rates; SWAT model; sensitivity; uncertainty; China; Beijing; soil assessment; water assessment; human activities; urbanisation; farmland; water conservation.

DOI: 10.1504/IJW.2016.073745

International Journal of Water, 2016 Vol.10 No.1, pp.87 - 107

Received: 07 Jun 2014
Accepted: 27 Aug 2014

Published online: 17 Dec 2015 *

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