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Title: Population dynamics, industrial development and the decline of the traditional agro-forest landscape on the Mediterranean urban fringe: a case study in Greece

Authors: Anastasios Mavrakis; Kostas Rontos; Christina Chronopoulou; Luca Salvati

Addresses: Department of Economic and Regional Development, Institute of Urban Environment and Human Resources, Panteion University, 136 Syngrou Av., GR-17671 Athens, Greece ' Department of Sociology, University of the Aegean, Mitilini Hill, GR-81100 Lesvos, Greece ' Educational Department of Primary Education, National and Kapodestrian University of Athens, 13a Navarinou str., GR-10680 Athens, Greece ' Consiglio per la Ricerca e la sperimentazione in Agricoltura, Via della Navicella 2-4, I-00184 Rome, Italy

Abstract: The present study assesses population dynamics, urban growth and the changing economic structure in Thriasio, the main industrial area of Greece. Best-fit models using multinomial, exponential and Verhulst equations have been considered to estimate population dynamics, trends in the established activities and the consequent changes in land-use over time. Models indicate a continuous increase of both resident population and established activities, although the growth rate of both variables was found to be spatially heterogeneous. Land availability played an important role in the economic development of the area. Our results identify the socioeconomic context contributing to the unsustainable development of Thriasio, an industrial area affected by relevant environmental problems that determined a high fragility of the surrounding rural land. The present study proposes an original framework to analyse population and economic data together with land-use trends and planning measures. This information is considered important to set up sustainable land management strategies addressing the environmental and social fragility of industrial areas developed at the fringe of large cities.

Keywords: Verhulst equation; population growth; land use changes; Southern Europe; Mediterranean; Greece; population dynamics; industrial development; agro-forest landscape; agro-forest decline; case study; agriculture; forestry; urban growth; cities; modelling; sustainable land management; land management strategies; sustainability; sustainable development.

DOI: 10.1504/IJSD.2016.073649

International Journal of Sustainable Development, 2016 Vol.19 No.1, pp.1 - 14

Available online: 15 Dec 2015 *

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