Title: A methodology for modelling energy use in the agriculture sector for the Pakistan integrated energy model

Authors: Sayed M. Irfan

Addresses: Department of Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering, NED University of Engineering and Technology, Karachi, Pakistan

Abstract: This paper attempts to rationalise and facilitate the application of the MARKAL/TIMES modelling framework for modelling and planning energy use in Pakistan which has been developed as the Pakistan integrated energy model (Pak-IEM) by the Government of Pakistan. The arguments are developed by applying the paradigm to the agriculture sector. This modeling approach is rooted in the fundamentals of decision modelling involving the explicit identification of values and objectives, the decision context, and the use of a logical framework to structure the elements of the decision situation through influence diagrams. This lends itself perfectly to a linear programming modelling framework. The practical implications of this are the advantages to be gained in successive refinements of the integrated model in later years, contingent to operational, policy, or technology changes. This capability, hopefully, will identify a host of potentially feasible related projects that can be undertaken within various sectors.

Keywords: intelligent systems; integrated energy modelling; influence diagrams; linear programming; MARKAL/TIMES; Pakistan; energy use; agricultural sector; agriculture.

DOI: 10.1504/IJIE.2015.073466

International Journal of Intelligent Enterprise, 2015 Vol.3 No.1, pp.19 - 37

Received: 30 Apr 2015
Accepted: 26 May 2015
Published online: 09 Dec 2015 *

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