Title: Advancing the forecasting innovation pathways approach: hybrid and electric vehicles case

Authors: Alan L. Porter; Scott W. Cunningham; Alejandro Sanz

Addresses: Search Technology, 6025 The Corners Parkway # 202, Norcross, GA 30092-3328, USA; Technology Policy and Assessment Center, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30332, USA ' Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management Delft University of Technology, Jaffalaan 5, 2628 BX Delft, The Netherlands ' SKF B.V., Kelvinbaan 16, 3439 MT Nieuwegein, The Netherlands

Abstract: The forecasting innovation pathways (FIP) approach combines empirical tech mining with expert opinion. To date, FIP has been devised for relatively immature emerging technologies. This study extends the FIP methodology to work for a more advanced and complicated technology. It does so through a case analysis of hybrid and electric vehicles (HEVs). We retain the ten-step FIP process, augmenting several steps to deal with this more complex technology and technology delivery system (TDS). In particular, it is vital to address TDS sub-systems and attendant technical and market infrastructures. The key method to explore future prospects for the technology in question is an interactive workshop. Splitting into multiple workshop sub-groups proved constructive in addressing target markets and regional variations in innovation systems and policy options. The paper derives methodological suggestions to enrich FIP to address more complex technologies regarding scoping, sub-systems analyses, and ways to systematise key operations.

Keywords: forecasting innovation pathways; FIP; innovation systems; tech mining; automobile industry; hybrid and electric vehicles; HEVs; hybrid vehicles; future-oriented workshops; technology roadmaps; technology management; interactive workshops; automotive technology; target markets; regional variations; policy options.

DOI: 10.1504/IJTM.2015.072975

International Journal of Technology Management, 2015 Vol.69 No.3/4, pp.275 - 300

Accepted: 05 Jan 2015
Published online: 11 Nov 2015 *

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