Title: Project time and cost estimate at completion based on non-parametric resampling with interval risk

Authors: Afshin Kamyabniya; Seyed Mohammad Seyedhoseini; Saied Yaghoubi

Addresses: Department of Industrial Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, P.O. Box 1684613114, Narmak, Tehran, Iran ' Department of Industrial Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, P.O. Box 1684613114, Narmak, Tehran, Iran ' Department of Industrial Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, P.O. Box 1684613114, Narmak, Tehran, Iran

Abstract: Control and feedback in complex and sensitive systems with different resources and properties in uncertainty conditions are one of the significant challenges for project managers. Therefore, in this paper, an integrated model with quantitative and qualitative approach based on earned value management and risk analysis methods proposed to decrease deviations in time and cost estimation at complete (EAC(t) and EAC). Using the proposed performance indexes based on risk scores obtained by non-parametric resampling technique, namely bootstrap, calculating more accurate estimations of final cost and duration at lower and upper band with various confidence levels will be possible. Finally, an illustrative case study presented demonstrating the proposed model can be efficiently applied through real case software projects.

Keywords: earned value management; EVM; risk assessment; completion cost estimation; completion time estimation; software engineering; software management; non-parametric bootstrap; non-parametric resampling; project time; project cost; project completion; interval risk; software projects; project management.

DOI: 10.1504/IJISE.2015.072729

International Journal of Industrial and Systems Engineering, 2015 Vol.21 No.4, pp.458 - 473

Received: 08 Nov 2013
Accepted: 20 Mar 2014
Published online: 28 Oct 2015 *

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