Title: Simulation of climate change impact in a river basin in Eastern India

Authors: Sambaran Jana; Mantu Das; Debasri Roy; Subhasish Das; Asis Mazumdar

Addresses: School of Water Resources Engineering, Jadavpur University, Kolkata, West Bengal, India ' School of Water Resources Engineering, Jadavpur University, Kolkata, West Bengal, India ' School of Water Resources Engineering, Jadavpur University, Kolkata, West Bengal, India ' School of Water Resources Engineering, Jadavpur University, Kolkata, West Bengal, India ' School of Water Resources Engineering, Jadavpur University, Kolkata, West Bengal, India

Abstract: This study simulates the impact of climate change in Subarnarekha river basin in eastern India using climate projections of regional climate model (PRECIS) of the Hadley Centre, UK, for A1B scenario. Hydrological model, HEC-HMS (of Hydrologic Engineering Center, USA), calibrated for the basin was used to simulate the daily hydrological condition for baseline period and future period of 2015-2030. A comparative analysis of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, streamflow under changed climate scenario and those parameters (under baseline scenario) revealed decrease of rainfall and corresponding decrease of stream flow in the June-September (JJAS) period for almost half of the future years. Increase of potential evapotranspiration for the months of February to June, increase of annual 24-h maximum rainfall and associated increase in the annual flood maxima with time of occurrence of peak rainfall and peak flow shifting from monsoon period to the month of May were also noted.

Keywords: climate change impact; simulation; river basins; India; HEC-HMS; PRECIS model; hydrological modelling; precipitation; potential evapotranspiration; stream flow; rainfall; monsoon period; flooding.

DOI: 10.1504/IJHST.2015.072631

International Journal of Hydrology Science and Technology, 2015 Vol.5 No.4, pp.314 - 332

Received: 02 Oct 2014
Accepted: 24 Jun 2015
Published online: 22 Oct 2015 *

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