Title: Drivers of IST growth and set up of first generation scenarios

Authors: Roberto Vacca, Riccardo Enei

Addresses: ISIS (Institute of Studies for the Integration of Systems), Via Flaminia 21, Rome 00196, Italy. ' ISIS (Institute of Studies for the Integration of Systems), Via Flaminia 21, Rome 00196, Italy

Abstract: The objective of this work is to provide a systematic overview of the complex dynamics of the digital economy through the set up of a conceptual framework, data collection, scenario building and regression analysis. Factors positively affecting the dynamics of IST involve investment in R&D and physical capital, a European regulatory framework favouring competition and liberalisation (for telecommunications, infrastructures, networks and services) and an appropriate endowment of human capital (literacy, education, skills of experts and of end users). Among the EU15, seven countries were identified as paradigmatic (they account for 2/3 of EU15 activity), and termed innovators (Finland, Ireland), advanced (UK, France, Germany) and laggards (Italy, Portugal). Three scenarios are outlined until 2010 (business-as-usual, negative and positive). The Finnish paradigm can be termed a policy prescription; 32 polytechnics for 5 million people and a policy of investing in R&D were the drivers.

Keywords: IST growth; scenarios; digital economy; human capital; telecommunications; infrastructures; networks; services; regulatory framework; R&D; research and development; Finland; Ireland; Italy, Portugal; Finland, Ireland; UK; France; Germany; information society technology; information technology; information systems; ICT; communications; information and communication technologies.

DOI: 10.1504/IJTPM.2005.007241

International Journal of Technology, Policy and Management, 2005 Vol.5 No.1, pp.5 - 24

Published online: 26 Jun 2005 *

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