Title: Air traffic growth, energy, and the environment 2040: drivers, challenges, and opportunities for aviation

Authors: Niclas P. Randt; Christoph Jessberger; Kay Plötner; Axel Becker

Addresses: Institute of Aircraft Design, Technical University of Munich, Boltzmannstrasse 15, 85748, Garching, Germany ' Bauhaus Luftfahrt e.V., Willy-Messerschmitt-Str. 1, 85521, Ottobrunn, Germany ' Bauhaus Luftfahrt e.V., Willy-Messerschmitt-Str. 1, 85521, Ottobrunn, Germany ' Airbus Operations GmbH, Kreetslag 10, 21129, Hamburg, Germany

Abstract: Although many forecasts predict a stable development of commercial aviation within the upcoming decade, its further development remains uncertain. Aviation stakeholders usually develop strategies on a short-term basis, while public institutions have set ambitious long-term goals for the industry. This paper shows how scenario planning can aid in handling uncertainty in long-term strategy development. Three decisive factors are explored: the increasing scarcity of resources, the change of global climate, and the growing demand for mobility. The paper exposes the results of a recent foresight project led by the authors. Three future scenarios are examined featuring top-level statements that address the global political and economic situation, and in-detail views on the aviation sector in 2040. The intentional difference between the three scenarios eventually enables the development of robust strategies for aviation stakeholders.

Keywords: air traffic growth; resource scarcity; global climate change; mobility demand; commercial aviation; scenario planning; strategy development; future uncertainty; future challenges; future scenarios; foresight project; aviation management; long-term goals; future air transport.

DOI: 10.1504/IJAM.2015.072377

International Journal of Aviation Management, 2015 Vol.2 No.3/4, pp.144 - 166

Published online: 11 Oct 2015 *

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