Air traffic growth, energy, and the environment 2040: drivers, challenges, and opportunities for aviation Online publication date: Sun, 11-Oct-2015
by Niclas P. Randt; Christoph Jessberger; Kay Plötner; Axel Becker
International Journal of Aviation Management (IJAM), Vol. 2, No. 3/4, 2015
Abstract: Although many forecasts predict a stable development of commercial aviation within the upcoming decade, its further development remains uncertain. Aviation stakeholders usually develop strategies on a short-term basis, while public institutions have set ambitious long-term goals for the industry. This paper shows how scenario planning can aid in handling uncertainty in long-term strategy development. Three decisive factors are explored: the increasing scarcity of resources, the change of global climate, and the growing demand for mobility. The paper exposes the results of a recent foresight project led by the authors. Three future scenarios are examined featuring top-level statements that address the global political and economic situation, and in-detail views on the aviation sector in 2040. The intentional difference between the three scenarios eventually enables the development of robust strategies for aviation stakeholders.
Existing subscribers:
Go to Inderscience Online Journals to access the Full Text of this article.
If you are not a subscriber and you just want to read the full contents of this article, buy online access here.Complimentary Subscribers, Editors or Members of the Editorial Board of the International Journal of Aviation Management (IJAM):
Login with your Inderscience username and password:
Want to subscribe?
A subscription gives you complete access to all articles in the current issue, as well as to all articles in the previous three years (where applicable). See our Orders page to subscribe.
If you still need assistance, please email subs@inderscience.com
Our Blog 
Follow us on Twitter 
Visit us on Facebook