Title: Climate change impacts and the value of adaptation - can crop adjustments help farmers in Pakistan?
Authors: Mirza Nomman Ahmed; Peter Michael Schmitz
Addresses: Department of Agricultural and Development Policy, Institute of Agricultural Policy and Market Research, Senckenberg Str. 3, 35390 Giessen, Germany ' Department of Agricultural and Development Policy, Institute of Agricultural Policy and Market Research, Senckenberg Str. 3, 35390 Giessen, Germany
Abstract: According to the climate vulnerability index Pakistan is ranked 12th globally and economic losses of approximately 4.5 billion dollars for the entire economy are anticipated. However, all these 'future' estimates of losses for Pakistan do not consider past adaptations by the farmers in their calculations and thus tend to overestimate climate change induced losses. This paper contributes to the literature by studying the effectiveness of households' adaptation and coping measures regarding the prevention of loss and damage using choice-modelling. In order to assess, whether loss and damage is likely to occur in future and to determine, whether crop-cultivating farmers have well adapted, simulations are run. Farmers are found to adjust their crop choices considering climate and expected income. If farmers adapt, benefits exceeding 300 million dollars are possible for the crop sector. In the business as usual scenario, losses between 4 and 12 million dollars (2030/2090) are found. The findings hint towards well-directed adaptations of farmers in Pakistan, preventing loss and damage.
Keywords: developing countries; environmental impact; hedonic; global warming; net revenue; climate change adaptation; agriculture; Pakistan; structural Ricardian model; crop switching; farmers; climate vulnerability index; economic losses; choice modelling; simulation; loss and damage; expected income.
International Journal of Global Warming, 2015 Vol.8 No.2, pp.231 - 257
Received: 24 Apr 2013
Accepted: 23 Jan 2014
Published online: 25 Sep 2015 *