Title: Logic and probabilistic risk models for management of innovations system of country

Authors: Eugene Dmitrievich Solozhentsev

Addresses: Laboratory of Intelligent Integrated Systems of Computer-Aided Design, Institute of Problems in Mechanical Engineering, Russian Academy of Sciences, Bolshoi 61, V.O., Saint-Petersburg, 199178, Russia

Abstract: In the present paper, we discuss a strategy of the country development, combining the management of the innovations system and the creation of logical probabilistic (LP) risk models in socio-economic systems. The aim of the strategy is to reduce the losses from corruption and drug addiction and increase the profits from socio-economic systems. The global innovations index is analysed and its methodological drawbacks are revealed. The logical probabilistic innovative index is developed (LP-model) and its advantages are described. The development of the innovative technology of risk management in structurally complex systems is analysed. We have developed the hybrid LP-model of the success of solving the innovation problem in which the subjects-events are represented by the state, business, banks, scholars and public opinion. We have also developed the indicative LP-model of the failure risk of the innovations system of the country. We have demonstrated that for the innovations to appear we have to carry out a structural reform of education, science and economy of Russia. It has been proved that it is impossible to solve the difficult socio-economic problems of Russia without the involvement of scholars and public opinion.

Keywords: logical risk models; probabilistic risk models; risk modelling; innovation management; national innovation systems; NIS; Global Innovation Index; GII; corruption; drug addiction; profitability; socio-economic systems; risk management; failure risk; structural reform; Russia.

DOI: 10.1504/IJRAM.2015.071211

International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management, 2015 Vol.18 No.3/4, pp.237 - 255

Received: 06 Dec 2013
Accepted: 23 May 2014

Published online: 17 Aug 2015 *

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