Title: Using simulation for reliable investment appraisal: evidence from a case study

Authors: Rossella Pozzi; Carlo Noè; Valentina Lazzarotti; Tommaso Rossi

Addresses: LIUC-Università Cattaneo, Corso Matteotti 22, 21053 Castellanza, Italy ' LIUC-Università Cattaneo, Corso Matteotti 22, 21053 Castellanza, Italy ' LIUC-Università Cattaneo, Corso Matteotti 22, 21053 Castellanza, Italy ' LIUC-Università Cattaneo, Corso Matteotti 22, 21053 Castellanza, Italy

Abstract: This paper seeks to develop a model for developing a simulation-based approach to appraise an investment in the logistics context. This study funds the development of the proposed model on a review of literature, on the use of Petri nets, and on the performing of discrete event simulation. The model proposed is presented outlining its steps and, then, applied by means of a case study. From a general point of view, the outcomes of the proposed approach support the combination of simulation and investment appraisal methods. With reference to the case study, the proposed approach has interesting managerial implications. Performing of a unique case study could be perceived as a limitation of this paper, as the repeatability of the proposed approach is not presented. This study provides an example of the application of simulation model supporting investment decisions.

Keywords: Petri nets; modelling; discrete event simulation; investment appraisal; case study; net present value; NPV; operational research; management decisions; decision making; logistics; investment decisions.

DOI: 10.1504/IJOR.2015.068743

International Journal of Operational Research, 2015 Vol.23 No.1, pp.45 - 62

Available online: 09 Apr 2015 *

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