Title: Personal car or shared car? Predicting potential modal shifts from multinomial logit models and bootstrap confidence intervals

Authors: Amandine Chevalier; Frédéric Lantz

Addresses: BIPE, Le Vivaldi, 11/13 rue René Jacques, F92138 Issy-les-Moulineaux Cedex, France; Economics Department, IFPEN, 1&4 avenue de Bois-Préau, 92852 Rueil-Malmaison Cedex, Paris France; CERNA, Mines ParisTech, 60 boulevard Saint Michel, 75006 Paris, France ' Economics Department, IFP School, IFPEN, 1&4 avenue de Bois-Préau, 92852 Rueil-Malmaison Cedex, Paris, France

Abstract: Daily household mobility in France is characterised by the supremacy of the automobile. The main objective of this paper is to explain the modal choice of French households for their daily trips and to predict potential shifts from personal car to shared car. A multinomial logit model is estimated and reveals the particular importance of motorisation on modal choices. A conditional logit model is also estimated and shows no particular importance of the costs in the shared car deployment. Moreover, the increase in distances between 2010 and 2020 makes motorised modes more necessary. Simulations show that personal car should remain the main mode of transportation by 2020 except if households have no car. In that case, public transport would become the main transport mode and the shift to shared car would be at a maximum. Thus, personal car and public transport should remain the main modes of transportation by 2020.

Keywords: modal choice; personal cars; shared cars; multinomial logit model; conditional logit model; bootstrap confidence intervals; car sharing; France; transport modes; simulation; public transport.

DOI: 10.1504/IJATM.2015.068549

International Journal of Automotive Technology and Management, 2015 Vol.15 No.2, pp.149 - 170

Received: 21 Feb 2014
Accepted: 27 Jun 2014

Published online: 29 Mar 2015 *

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