Personal car or shared car? Predicting potential modal shifts from multinomial logit models and bootstrap confidence intervals Online publication date: Sun, 05-Apr-2015
by Amandine Chevalier; Frédéric Lantz
International Journal of Automotive Technology and Management (IJATM), Vol. 15, No. 2, 2015
Abstract: Daily household mobility in France is characterised by the supremacy of the automobile. The main objective of this paper is to explain the modal choice of French households for their daily trips and to predict potential shifts from personal car to shared car. A multinomial logit model is estimated and reveals the particular importance of motorisation on modal choices. A conditional logit model is also estimated and shows no particular importance of the costs in the shared car deployment. Moreover, the increase in distances between 2010 and 2020 makes motorised modes more necessary. Simulations show that personal car should remain the main mode of transportation by 2020 except if households have no car. In that case, public transport would become the main transport mode and the shift to shared car would be at a maximum. Thus, personal car and public transport should remain the main modes of transportation by 2020.
Existing subscribers:
Go to Inderscience Online Journals to access the Full Text of this article.
If you are not a subscriber and you just want to read the full contents of this article, buy online access here.Complimentary Subscribers, Editors or Members of the Editorial Board of the International Journal of Automotive Technology and Management (IJATM):
Login with your Inderscience username and password:
Want to subscribe?
A subscription gives you complete access to all articles in the current issue, as well as to all articles in the previous three years (where applicable). See our Orders page to subscribe.
If you still need assistance, please email subs@inderscience.com
Our Blog 
Follow us on Twitter 
Visit us on Facebook