Title: Logical and probabilistic risk models for assessment and analysis of the drug addiction problem in a region

Authors: Eugene Dmitrievich Solozhentsev; Sergey A. Mityagin

Addresses: Head of Laboratory of Intelligent Integrated Systems of Computer-Aided Design, Institute of Problems in Mechanical Engineering, Russian Academy of Sciences, Bolshoi 61, V. O., Saint-Petersburg, 199178, Russia ' Information and Analytical Centre of St. Petersburg Government, 191040, St. Petersburg, Transportniy pereulok, 6, Russia

Abstract: This paper provides evidence about the selection of the model type in order to solve the drug addiction problem in the region. Methodological support of the drug addiction situation monitoring systems has been analysed. Hybrid logic and probabilistic (LP) risk models of failure to counteract drug addiction, with and without corruption, are described. A scenario LP-risk model of conceptual development of drug addiction in the region is considered. We also propose an LP-risk model of drug addiction danger in the region on the basis of indicative indexes, taking into account drug addiction latency. An example of the assessment of drug addiction danger in the region using the monitoring data is provided.

Keywords: drug addiction monitoring; fundamental indexes; indicative indexes; drug addiction models; logic models; probability modelling; risk assessment; corruption; model selection; drug addiction countermeasures; risk management.

DOI: 10.1504/IJRAM.2015.068153

International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management, 2015 Vol.18 No.1, pp.1 - 20

Received: 26 Apr 2014
Accepted: 03 Oct 2014
Published online: 09 May 2015 *

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