Title: Predictive speed models for two-lane rural roads using GPS equipment

Authors: Francesco Bella; Alessandro Calvi; Fabrizio D'Amico

Addresses: Department of Engineering, Roma Tre University, Via Vito Volterra 62, 00146 Rome, Italy ' Department of Engineering, Roma Tre University, Via Vito Volterra 62, 00146 Rome, Italy ' Department of Engineering, Roma Tre University, Via Vito Volterra 62, 00146 Rome, Italy

Abstract: This research is aimed at verifying the effectiveness of a low cost global positioning system (GPS) installed in a medium passenger car for modelling drivers speed behaviour and providing predictive models of operating speed and speed differential. This study proposed new speed models specific for Italian two-lane rural roads, based on the analysis of 36 speed profiles performed along a road segment characterised by 13 tangent-curve configurations. A predictive model for operating speed on tangent identified the length of the tangent and the local grade as the most significant explanatory variables. Moreover a predictive model of operating speed on curve revealed the length and the radius of the horizontal curve and the local grade as predictors. Finally tangent-curve speed variations were evaluated and a model for predicting 85MSR was developed. The length of the approaching tangent and the deflection angle were found the most significant predictors.

Keywords: operating speed; speed differential; GPS data; predictive modelling; speed models; two-lane roads; rural roads; global positioning system; drivers speed; driver behaviour; vehicle speed; Italy; passenger cars; tangent length; deflection angle.

DOI: 10.1504/IJMNDI.2014.067177

International Journal of Mobile Network Design and Innovation, 2014 Vol.5 No.4, pp.187 - 194

Available online: 23 Jan 2015 *

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