Title: A tool for integrating time, cost and quality perspectives in Probability Impact (P-I) Tables

Authors: Selim Tugra Demir; David James Bryde; Damian John Fearon; Edward Godfrey Ochieng

Addresses: Built Environment and Sustainable Technologies (BEST) Research Institute, School of the Built Environment, Faculty of Technology and Environment, Liverpool John Moores University, Liverpool, L3 3AF, UK ' Built Environment and Sustainable Technologies (BEST) Research Institute, School of the Built Environment, Faculty of Technology and Environment, Liverpool John Moores University, Liverpool, L3 3AF, UK ' Built Environment and Sustainable Technologies (BEST) Research Institute, School of the Built Environment, Faculty of Technology and Environment, Liverpool John Moores University, Liverpool, L3 3AF, UK ' Built Environment and Sustainable Technologies (BEST) Research Institute, School of the Built Environment, Faculty of Technology and Environment, Liverpool John Moores University, Liverpool, L3 3AF, UK

Abstract: One widely documented tool for project risk analysis is the Probability-Impact (P-I) Table, which assesses the probability of occurrence of a risky event and its likely impact on the project objectives, which are typically articulated in terms of cost, time and quality. Whilst there are numerous adaptations of the P-I Table, they are all consistent in treating the project objectives as independent and unrelated variables. This is a major limitation of the tool and reduces the P-I Table's practical applicability, as in most project contexts the probabilities and impacts of a risky event on the project objectives will be inter-related. To address this limitation, this paper presents a new tool that uses vector theory to enable a single calculation of the overall probability and impact, incorporating the perspective of all three objectives. The tool is illustrated through a practical application to a real case construction project.

Keywords: risk management; vector theory; probability impact tables; construction projects; time; cost; quality; project risk assessment; project management.

DOI: 10.1504/IJPOM.2014.066410

International Journal of Project Organisation and Management, 2014 Vol.6 No.4, pp.303 - 318

Received: 17 May 2011
Accepted: 02 Nov 2011

Published online: 14 Jan 2015 *

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