Title: Safety oriented bubble diagrams vs. risk plots based on prediction intervals and strength-of-knowledge assessments. Which one to use as an alternative to risk matrices?

Authors: Eirik Bjorheim Abrahamsen; Øystein Amundrud; Terje Aven; Alireza M. Gelyani

Addresses: 4036 Stavanger, Stavanger, Norway ' 4036 Stavanger, Stavanger, Norway ' University of Stavanger, 4036 Stavanger, Norway ' University of Stavanger, 4036 Stavanger, Norway

Abstract: The use of risk matrices for visualising risks has been discussed in the literature. It is argued that risk matrices are not appropriate as the uncertainty is not properly taken into account. As an alternative to risk matrices, the use of bubble diagrams has been suggested. Risk plots based on prediction (uncertainty) intervals and strength-of-knowledge assessments have also been recommended. In this paper, we discuss which of these two alternatives to traditional risk matrices is considered most appropriate for visualising risks. We show that risk plots are more precise in reflecting important aspects of risks than bubble diagrams, while bubble diagrams are considered to give a better basis for ranking between risks. In this paper, a new visualisation tool closely related to the risk plots and the bubble diagrams is suggested.

Keywords: risk matrices; safety oriented bubble diagrams; risk plots; uncertainty; strength-of-knowledge; risk management; prediction intervals; risk visualisation tools; precision; risk importance; risk ranking.

DOI: 10.1504/IJBCRM.2014.066159

International Journal of Business Continuity and Risk Management, 2014 Vol.5 No.3, pp.197 - 209

Received: 05 Apr 2014
Accepted: 02 Sep 2014
Published online: 12 Dec 2014 *

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