Title: Dynamic correlations in international oil and RMB non-deliverable forwards markets

Authors: Ling Liu; Yan Fang

Addresses: School of Financial, Shanghai University of International Business and Economics, No. 1900 Wenxiang Road, Songjiang District, Shanghai, 201620, China ' School of Financial, Shanghai University of International Business and Economics, No. 1900 Wenxiang Road, Songjiang District, Shanghai, 201620, China

Abstract: This paper investigates dynamic between oil markets and RMB non-deliverable forwards (NDF) markets. The analysis is carried out through the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) model of Engle (2002). We find that the rising of international oil price return leads to the decline of RMB nominal exchange rate return. This paper uses FDCC-MVGARCH model of the block-diagonal structure to analyse the dynamic correlation between international oil price and RMB Non-deliverable Forwards, and the correlation between RMB NDFs of CME and that of Hong Kong. The correlation between international oil price and RMB NDFs is more than 43 times of that between international oil price and RMB nominal exchange rate. There is a strong correlation between the RMB NDFs returns of CME and that of HSBC Hong Kong.

Keywords: RMB; NDFs; non-deliverable forwards; FDCC-MVGARCH model; international oil price; renminbi; oil markets; DCC; dynamic conditional correlation; nominal exchange rates; Hong Kong.

DOI: 10.1504/IJBCRM.2014.066156

International Journal of Business Continuity and Risk Management, 2014 Vol.5 No.3, pp.224 - 235

Received: 31 Mar 2014
Accepted: 05 Aug 2014
Published online: 12 Dec 2014 *

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