Title: Assessing the impact of deterrence on aviation checked baggage screening strategies

Authors: Sheldon H. Jacobson, Tamana Karnani, John E. Kobza

Addresses: Simulation and Optimisation Laboratory, Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, 1206 West Green Street (mc-244), University of Illinois, Urbana, IL 61801-2906, USA. ' Simulation and Optimisation Laboratory, Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, 1206 West Green Street (mc-244), University of Illinois, Urbana, IL 61801-2906, USA. ' Department of Industrial Engineering, Texas Tech University, Box 43061, Lubbock, TX 79409-3061, USA

Abstract: This paper analyses checked baggage screening strategies that incorporate the effects of deterrence on explosive detection systems (EDSs) deployed at airports. Cost models for these strategies are presented that incorporate the cost of purchasing, operating, and maintaining an EDS, the number of checked bags available to be screened, and the numbers of selectees and non-selectees checked bags actually screened over a one-year period. The model also includes the effect of deterrence on the level of threat at an airport. The cost models provide a quantitative tool to assess the strategy of 100% screening of all checked bags, as set forth by the USA Aviation and Transportation Security Act. Comparing the expected direct cost per expected prevented attack to the expected cost of an aviation terrorist incident provides an indication of the cost effectiveness of 100% checked bag screening.

Keywords: aviation security; checked baggage screening; cost models; deterrence; baggage screening strategies; deterrence effects; explosive detection systems; threat level; airport security; terrorist threat; risk assessment; Aviation and Transportation Security Act.

DOI: 10.1504/IJRAM.2005.006608

International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management, 2005 Vol.5 No.1, pp.1 - 15

Published online: 28 Mar 2005 *

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