Title: Operational short term health impact assessment of air pollution modelling system over Europe

Authors: Roberto San José; Juan Luis Pérez; Rosa M. González

Addresses: Environmental Software and Modelling Group, Computer Science School, Technical University of Madrid (UPM), Campus de Montegancedo, Boadilla del Monte, 28660 Madrid, Spain ' Environmental Software and Modelling Group, Computer Science School, Technical University of Madrid (UPM), Campus de Montegancedo, Boadilla del Monte, 28660 Madrid, Spain ' Department of Geophysics and Meteorology, Faculty of Physics, Complutense University of Madrid (UCM), Ciudad Universitaria, 28040 Madrid, Spain

Abstract: The last decade, scientific studies have indicated an association between air pollution to which people are exposed and wide range of adverse health outcomes. We have developed a tool which is based on a model (MM5-CMAQ) running over Europe with 50 km spatial resolution, based on EMEP annual emissions, to produce a short-term forecast of the impact on health. In order to estimate the mortality change (forecasted for the next 24 hours) we have chosen a log-linear (Poisson) regression form to estimate the concentration-response function. The parameters involved in the C-R function have been estimated based on epidemiological studies, which have been published. Finally, we have derived the relationship between concentration change and mortality change from the C-R function which is the final health impact function.

Keywords: short term impact; health impact assessment; Europe; air pollution; MM5; CMAQ; relative risk; epidemiological studies; C-R functions; concentration-response; air quality; concentration change; mortality change; pollutant concentration.

DOI: 10.1504/IJEP.2014.065922

International Journal of Environment and Pollution, 2014 Vol.55 No.1/2/3/4, pp.174 - 182

Available online: 29 Nov 2014 *

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