Title: The use of probabilistic plume predictions for the consequence assessment of atmospheric releases of hazardous materials

Authors: Nathan Platt; William Ross Kimball II; Jeffry T. Urban

Addresses: Institute for Defense Analyses, 4850 Mark Center Drive, Alexandria, VA 22311-1882, USA ' Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, Johns Hopkins University, 3400 North Charles Street, Baltimore, MD 21218-2682, USA ' Institute for Defense Analyses, 4850 Mark Center Drive, Alexandria, VA 22311-1882, USA

Abstract: Toxic load-based toxicity models have been increasingly applied to model the effects of atmospheric releases of hazardous materials. Although the majority of atmospheric transport and dispersion models predict only a 'mean' plume, real-world personnel are exposed to one of many possible individual realisations of a plume, and never to a 'mean' plume. Hazard prediction assessment capability (HPAC) model not only predicts the ensemble-mean dosage, but also the dosage variance, making it possible to construct a fully-probabilistic plume. We compare the 'mean plume' and 'probabilistic plume' approaches to dosage-based consequence assessment using HPAC simulations of a small-scale chemical artillery attack.

Keywords: casualty assessment; Haber's Law; ensemble averaged plume; consequence assessment; concentration fluctuations; probabilistic consequences; hazard prediction and assessment capability; HPAC; probabilistic plume predictions; atmospheric releases; hazardous materials; air pollution; casualities; ensemble-mean dosage; dosage variance; dosage-based assessment; simulation; small-scale chemical artillery attack; chemical weapons; toxic loads; toxicity modelling.

DOI: 10.1504/IJEP.2014.065899

International Journal of Environment and Pollution, 2014 Vol.55 No.1/2/3/4, pp.3 - 12

Published online: 17 Dec 2014 *

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