The use of probabilistic plume predictions for the consequence assessment of atmospheric releases of hazardous materials
by Nathan Platt; William Ross Kimball II; Jeffry T. Urban
International Journal of Environment and Pollution (IJEP), Vol. 55, No. 1/2/3/4, 2014

Abstract: Toxic load-based toxicity models have been increasingly applied to model the effects of atmospheric releases of hazardous materials. Although the majority of atmospheric transport and dispersion models predict only a 'mean' plume, real-world personnel are exposed to one of many possible individual realisations of a plume, and never to a 'mean' plume. Hazard prediction assessment capability (HPAC) model not only predicts the ensemble-mean dosage, but also the dosage variance, making it possible to construct a fully-probabilistic plume. We compare the 'mean plume' and 'probabilistic plume' approaches to dosage-based consequence assessment using HPAC simulations of a small-scale chemical artillery attack.

Online publication date: Wed, 17-Dec-2014

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