Title: Export instability and economic growth in Nigeria: a time series analysis

Authors: Olajide S. Oladipo

Addresses: School of Business and Information Systems, York College of the City University of New York, 94-20 Guy R. Brewer Blvd, Jamaica, NY 11451, USA

Abstract: The primary products and commodities provide food and livelihood for families and communities, are sources of raw material, and export earnings for many governments in sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries and most especially, Nigeria. However, over the years, global prices of primary products and commodities have been very volatile, with serious implications for economic growth. As a response, this study investigates the impact of export instability on economic growth in Nigeria using time series data from 1970q1 to 2011q4 and an econometric approach that addresses the problem of non-stationarity. As a departure from previous studies, the paper uses an instability measure that varies over time and a relatively large data sample size. The results show that export instability has negative effects on economic growth and also on investment.

Keywords: export instability; export; cointegration; vector error correction model; VECM; Nigeria; exports; economic growth; time series analysis; econometrics; investment.

DOI: 10.1504/IJEBR.2014.062911

International Journal of Economics and Business Research, 2014 Vol.7 No.4, pp.476 - 501

Received: 30 Jan 2013
Accepted: 19 May 2013
Published online: 24 Jul 2014 *

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