Title: Are major global stock markets efficient? An application of the martingale difference hypothesis with wild bootstrap

Authors: Dilip Kumar; Srinivasan Maheswaran

Addresses: Institute for Financial Management and Research, 24, Kothari Road, Nungambakkam, Chennai 600034, India ' Institute for Financial Management and Research, 24, Kothari Road, Nungambakkam, Chennai 600034, India

Abstract: This paper tests the finite sample properties of the Kuan and Lee's (KL) test to study market efficiency by mean of extensive Monte Carlo experiments using different data generating processes. We apply the KL test with and without wild bootstrap on the six global stock indices covering major US, European and Asian stock markets to test the martingale difference hypothesis. In addition, we apply a moving sub-sample approach to examine the evolution of market efficiency over time and to obtain inferential findings that are robust to the presence of influential outliers. We find a significant improvement in the small sample properties of the KL test under conditional heteroskedasticity when applied with the wild bootstrap procedure. On the empirical side, we find that, except for the German stock market, all the other markets under study have become more efficient after the sub-prime crisis.

Keywords: market efficiency; martingale difference hypothesis; wild bootstrap; Kuan and Lee test; Monte Carlo simulation; bootstrapping; stock markets.

DOI: 10.1504/AJFA.2014.060818

American Journal of Finance and Accounting, 2014 Vol.3 No.2/3/4, pp.217 - 233

Available online: 29 Apr 2014 *

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