Article: Assessing sales loss from automobile recalls: a Toyota case study Journal: International Journal of Business Continuity and Risk Management (IJBCRM) 2014 Vol.5 No.1 pp.14 - 28 Abstract: Automobile companies recall vehicles whenever they are perceived to have defects that affect safety. Since market responses to a product recall may be different depending on the size of cars in the recall, the analysis separated the recalls into major events with more than 500,000 cars per recall, and minor recalls with less than 500,000 cars per recall. In this paper, the impact on sales was measured in order to understand the customer's reaction under these circumstances. The well-publicised recalls in November 2009 and January 2010 are the focus of this study. The paper also investigates the impact of the recalls on the Japanese auto industry, as well as stock market performance of Toyota. The conclusion from the model indicates that major recalls have a negative impact on the market share with a three-month lag, while minor recalls showed a positive impact on the market share after four months. However, its impact on the stock market performance is immediate and shows no evidence of lagging effect for stock prices. Analysis on Japanese auto industry identifies that the market share trajectories of Honda and Toyota shows similar patterns which suggests that consumer perceptions of these companies are similar. Inderscience Publishers - linking academia, business and industry through research

Title: Assessing sales loss from automobile recalls: a Toyota case study

Authors: Heechang Shin; Robert Richardson; Oredola Soluade

Addresses: Department of Information Systems, Hagan School of Business, Iona College, 715 North Avenue, New Rochelle, NY 10801, USA ' Department of Information Systems, Hagan School of Business, Iona College, 715 North Avenue, New Rochelle, NY 10801, USA ' Department of Information Systems, Hagan School of Business, Iona College, 715 North Avenue, New Rochelle, NY 10801, USA

Abstract: Automobile companies recall vehicles whenever they are perceived to have defects that affect safety. Since market responses to a product recall may be different depending on the size of cars in the recall, the analysis separated the recalls into major events with more than 500,000 cars per recall, and minor recalls with less than 500,000 cars per recall. In this paper, the impact on sales was measured in order to understand the customer's reaction under these circumstances. The well-publicised recalls in November 2009 and January 2010 are the focus of this study. The paper also investigates the impact of the recalls on the Japanese auto industry, as well as stock market performance of Toyota. The conclusion from the model indicates that major recalls have a negative impact on the market share with a three-month lag, while minor recalls showed a positive impact on the market share after four months. However, its impact on the stock market performance is immediate and shows no evidence of lagging effect for stock prices. Analysis on Japanese auto industry identifies that the market share trajectories of Honda and Toyota shows similar patterns which suggests that consumer perceptions of these companies are similar.

Keywords: sales loss; automobile recalls; vehicle recalls; Toyota; case study; vehicle safety; Japan; stock market performance; market share; stock prices; Honda; consumer perceptions.

DOI: 10.1504/IJBCRM.2014.060041

International Journal of Business Continuity and Risk Management, 2014 Vol.5 No.1, pp.14 - 28

Published online: 31 May 2014 *

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Title: Assessing sales loss from automobile recalls: a Toyota case study

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