Title: Estimating marketing response models by MCMC

Authors: Wolfgang Polasek

Addresses: Deceased; formerly of: IHS, Stumpergasse 56, A-1060 Vienna, Austria; CMUP, Porto, Portugal

Abstract: Supply and demand systems in economics often come with restrictions that are difficult to estimate with classical methods. The approach of sales response function (SRF) models of Baier and Polasek (2010) is adapted to time series observation of beer sales in a simultaneous equation system. We propose a new class of growth sales (gSRF) models having endogenous and exogenous variables as in Polasek (2011) together with marketing efforts that follow a sustained growth allocation principle. This approach allows us to model growth rates in markets that are exposed to fierce competition and where marketing efforts cannot be evaluated directly. The class of gSRF models has the property that it models supply (i.e., marketing efforts) and demand factors jointly in a log-linear regression model that are correlated over time. The estimated model can explain the relative success of marketing expenditures for the shrinking beer market in Germany for the period 1999-2010.

Keywords: sales response functions; SRFs; constrained marketing budgets; supply and demand estimation; shrinking market shares; Germany; beer consumption; optimal budget allocation; marketing response models; MCMC; Markov chain Monte Carlo; growth sales models; modelling; market growth rates; marketing expenditure.

DOI: 10.1504/IJMMNO.2014.059958

International Journal of Mathematical Modelling and Numerical Optimisation, 2014 Vol.5 No.1/2, pp.24 - 44

Received: 08 May 2021
Accepted: 12 May 2021

Published online: 20 Mar 2014 *

Full-text access for editors Access for subscribers Purchase this article Comment on this article