Title: First passage time and first passage percolation models for analysing network resilience and effective strategies in strategic information warfare research: a brief survey and perspective

Authors: Zhanshan Ma

Addresses: Computational Biology and Medical Ecology Lab, State Key Laboratory of Genetic Resources and Evolution, Kunming Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming, 650223, China; Department of Computer Science, Institute of Bioinformatics and Evolutionary Studies, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID 83843, USA

Abstract: We argue for the applications of first passage time (FPT) and first passage percolation (FPP) problems to the modelling and analysis of network resilience as well as effective strategies in strategic information warfare (SIW). Several intuitive arguments can be readily made to justify our attempt. First, winning a confrontation can be abstracted as an FPT or FPP problem. Secondly, information warfare is very similar to the directed percolation. Thirdly, three essential metrics in the FPP theory, percolation critical probability (Pc), first passage percolation time, and shape set B(t) can be mapped to the probability to win (or lose) the war, network resilience, and effective strike range, respectively. Fourthly, non-linearity is prevalent in SIW; percolation theory, and complexity science in large, are particularly effective in tackling this critical issue. To the best of our knowledge, this should be the first review on applying FPT and FPP theories to the SIW research.

Keywords: first passage time; FPT; first passage percolation; FPP; percolation theory; random graphs; Fokker-Planck equation; network security; network resilience; strategic information warfare; SIW.

DOI: 10.1504/IJICS.2013.058219

International Journal of Information and Computer Security, 2013 Vol.5 No.4, pp.334 - 358

Published online: 10 Dec 2013 *

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