Title: Combined interpretive structural modelling and expected value method approach for managing project risks in oil exploration project

Authors: Debasis Sarkar; Sudhir Yadav

Addresses: Department of Civil Engineering, Infrastructure Engineering and Management, School of Technology, Pandit Deendayal Petroleum University, Gandhinagar-382007, Gujarat, India ' School of Petroleum Management, Pandit Deendayal Petroleum University, Gandhinagar-382007, Gujarat, India

Abstract: Oil exploration projects involve a large number of vulnerabilities and uncertainties associated with all project phases. This paper aims to develop a comprehensive framework for project risk management based on combined interpretive structural modelling (ISM) and expected value method (EVM) approach for oil exploration projects. ISM is useful in categorising the risks into different levels depending upon their severity and also in identifying the presence or absence of an interaction between risky activities. By EVM analysis, it is observed that the expected time overrun and expected cost overrun is about 15% and 20.08% more than the base time estimate (BTE) and base cost estimate (BCE) respectively. It is also observed that the probability of successful completion of the project within the scheduled contractual duration is only 10.75%. Thus, to ensure the probability of successful completion of the project, risk mitigation measures should be adopted accordingly.

Keywords: oil and gas industry; construction activities; project risks; uncertainty; interpretive structural modelling; ISM; expected value method; EVM; risk management; project management; oil exploration; risk mitigation.

DOI: 10.1504/IJDSRM.2013.057537

International Journal of Decision Sciences, Risk and Management, 2013 Vol.5 No.1, pp.35 - 54

Received: 25 Apr 2013
Accepted: 15 Sep 2013

Published online: 07 Nov 2013 *

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