Title: Uncertainty modelling of large deformation process using a new aggregation rule of evidence

Authors: Shahab Salehghaffari

Addresses: Department of Physical Medicine & Rehabilitation, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL 60611, USA; Rehabilitation Institute of Chicago (RIC), Chicago, IL 60611, USA

Abstract: The aggregation rule is critical when a high degree of conflict between different sources of data or expert opinions exists. In this paper, we will present a new evidence aggregation rule that makes use of Ground Probability Assignment (GPA) developed by Yager along with a proposed Credibility Factor of Evidence (CFE). Observed experimental evidences on simulation responses or commonly used values of uncertain parameters are used for the CFE estimation. The new aggregation rule is adopted for uncertainty modelling of a large deformation process represented by the Taylor impact test for which Johnson-Cook and Zerilli-Armstrong plasticity models provide different answers. The uncertainty modelling procedure also accommodates both epistemic and aleatory uncertainty embedded in material constants of the adopted plasticity models. Results of uncertainty representation, propagation and quantification for Taylor impact tests of AISI 4340 Steel have shown that the suggested aggregation rule is very efficient in recognising key information or knowledge from different sources, which helps to reduce epistemic uncertainty.

Keywords: evidence aggregation; uncertainty modelling; evidence theory; epistemic uncertainty; material behaviour; material constants; aggregation rule; ground probability assignment; GPA; credibility factor of evidence; simulation; deformation; plasticity models.

DOI: 10.1504/IJRS.2013.057093

International Journal of Reliability and Safety, 2013 Vol.7 No.3, pp.249 - 275

Received: 09 Sep 2012
Accepted: 12 Feb 2013
Published online: 30 Sep 2014 *

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