Title: Stock market volatility and fluctuations in the price-earnings ratio

Authors: Dimitrios Koutmos

Addresses: Leeds University Busines School, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK

Abstract: This paper examines the time-series relation between the price-earnings (P/E) multiple and market volatility for the G-7 markets. If investors are risk-averse agents and demand a higher required rate of return to take on more risk, then we should expect P/E to be inversely related to volatility. Using various specifications for volatility and P/E, the relationship is found to be negative and statistically significant across most markets under consideration. This provides indirect evidence that the required rate of return and risk are positively related. These findings also emphasise the importance of considering 'forward-looking' proxies, such as the P/E multiple, when investigating the intertemporal risk-return trade-off.

Keywords: P-E ratio; price-earnings ratio; stock market volatility; fed model; GARCH; G7 markets; G-7; rate of return; market risk.

DOI: 10.1504/IJCEE.2012.053345

International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, 2012 Vol.2 No.3/4, pp.223 - 237

Received: 05 Mar 2012
Accepted: 11 Mar 2013
Published online: 17 Apr 2013 *

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