Title: Modelling diffusion of successive generations of technology: a general framework

Authors: P.K. Kapur; Anu G. Aggarwal; Amir Hossein Soleiman Garmabaki; Gurinder Singh

Addresses: Amity International Business School, Amity University, Noida, Uttar Pradesh, India ' Department of Operational Research, University of Delhi, New Delhi 110007, India ' Department of Operational Research, University of Delhi, New Delhi 110007, India ' Amity International Business School, Amity University, Noida, Uttar Pradesh, India

Abstract: In today's market where each company is trying to prove itself better than its competitors, companies have to continually bring new generations of their products so as to survive in the market. Each succeeding generation offers some innovative performance or new functionality, distinguishing itself from the past generation. Based on the behavioural assumptions of diffusion theory, this paper proposes an extension of the Bass diffusion model that separates substitution from switching as well as leapfrogging. We also present a relationship between our model and Norton-Bass model. Empirical implications of the proposed model have been validated on data collected from two industries (semiconductor industry dynamic random access memory shipments of six generations, mainframe industry (USA)). The model describes the growth of these generations quite effectively.

Keywords: innovation diffusion; technology leapfrogging; technology substitution; technology switching; successive product generations; diffusion modelling; successive technology generations; semiconductor industry; DRAM; technological diffusion theory; new technology generations.

DOI: 10.1504/IJOR.2013.052715

International Journal of Operational Research, 2013 Vol.16 No.4, pp.465 - 484

Published online: 29 Jul 2014 *

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