Title: Egypt-US commodity trade and the J-curve

Authors: Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee; Amr Sadek Hosny

Addresses: The Center for Research on International Economics and Department of Economics, The University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI 53201, USA ' The Center for Research on International Economics and Department of Economics, The University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI 53201, USA

Abstract: Almost 73% of trade between Egypt and the USA involves the 36 industries for which continuous quarterly data are available over the period 1994I to 2007IV. We take advantage of this rich data set and test the J-curve hypothesis for each of the 36 industries. By relying upon a new definition of the J-curve, i.e., short-run deterioration combined with the long-run improvement of the trade balance subsequent to currency depreciation, we find evidence in support of the new definition in 16 industries. Previous research that used aggregate trade data could not support the phenomenon.

Keywords: J-curve; Egypt; USA; United States; commodity trade; short-run deterioration; long-run improvement; trade balances; currency depreciation; aggregate data; trade data; economics; business research.

DOI: 10.1504/IJEBR.2013.051893

International Journal of Economics and Business Research, 2013 Vol.5 No.2, pp.115 - 127

Available online: 10 Jan 2013 *

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