Title: Scenario-based vision building of nuclear energy

Authors: Hyun Yim; Seokho Son; Jongmin Han

Addresses: Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning, 4F Dongwon Industry Build. 68 Mabang-gil, Seocho-gu, Seoul 137-130, South Korea ' Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning, 4F Dongwon Industry Build. 68 Mabang-gil, Seocho-gu, Seoul 137-130, South Korea ' Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning, 4F Dongwon Industry Build. 68 Mabang-gil, Seocho-gu, Seoul 137-130, South Korea

Abstract: Nuclear energy policies in Korea have been developed without considering uncertainties. Those were developed from the trend extrapolation that merely projected rapidly increasing energy consumption. However, there is a concern that such a rosy plan cannot respond effectively to many uncertainties in the forces shaping the future of nuclear energy. A new vision building process for nuclear energy should be established in order to take into account these uncertainties. The vision building process with combination of backcasting with exploratory scenarios was proposed to establish a long-term vision for nuclear energy for 2050 in Korea. First, alternative scenarios were suggested in consideration of future uncertainties. A desirable future of nuclear energy was then projected upon consideration of these various scenarios and a vision was suggested. Finally, key technologies and policy directions necessary to achieve the vision were identified. This work is expected to help policy makers to prepare for the future in the face of uncertainties.

Keywords: vision building; nuclear energy; exploratory scenarios; uncertainty; backcasting; South Korea; energy consumption; long-term visions; alternative scenarios; future uncertainties; key technologies; policy directions; policy makers; foresight; innovation policies; innovation strategies; strategy planning.

DOI: 10.1504/IJFIP.2013.051761

International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy, 2013 Vol.9 No.1, pp.56 - 66

Available online: 29 Jan 2013 *

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