Title: Wheat and corn prices and energy markets: spillover effects

Authors: Ibrahim A. Onour; Bruno S. Sergi

Addresses: Department of Business Administration, School of Management Studies, University of Khartoum, P.O. Box 321, Khartoum, Sudan. ' University of Messina, Via T. Cannizzaro, 278, I – 98122 Messina, Italy

Abstract: This paper investigates volatility spillover across crude oil market and wheat and corn markets. The corn commodity is taken here to assess the impact of change in demand for biofuel on wheat market. Results of multivariate GARCH model show evidence of corn price volatility transmission to wheat market. Our results indicate that while shocks (unexpected news) in crude oil market have significant impact on volatility in wheat and corn markets, the effect of crude oil price changes on wheat and corn prices is insignificant. The impulse response analysis also indicates shocks in oil markets have permanent effect on wheat and corn price changes. This reveals the influence of future crude oil markets on global food price volatility. Also indicated that fertilisers markets influenced by own-shocks and shocks in oil markets. Thus, shocks in crude oil markets have direct and indirect effects (via fertilisers markets) on food commodity markets.

Keywords: price volatility; global food; impulse response; wheat prices; corn prices; crude oil prices; energy markets: spillover effects; biofuels; market shocks; fertilisers; food commodity markets.

DOI: 10.1504/IJBG.2012.050905

International Journal of Business and Globalisation, 2012 Vol.9 No.4, pp.372 - 382

Published online: 20 Aug 2014 *

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