Title: A numerical study on assessing sustainable development with future genuine savings simulation

Authors: Masayuki Sato; Sovannroeun Samreth; Katsunori Yamada

Addresses: Field Science Education and Research Center, Kyoto University, Kitashirakawa Oiwake-cho, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8502, Japan. ' Faculty of Liberal Arts, Saitama University, 255 Shimo-Okubo, Sakura-ku, Saitama-shi, Saitama 338-8570, Japan. ' Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, 6-1 Mihogaoka, Ibaraki, 567-0047, Japan

Abstract: This paper presents a numerical examination of sustainability from the perspective of 'genuine savings', using a dataset provided by the World Bank. Unlike previously-used criteria of sustainability that focus on observed paths of genuine savings rates, we consider future sustainability by simulating future paths of genuine savings. This analysis shows that some countries that had been classified as being sustainable by previous studies, using observed paths, are in fact, not sustainable from the perspective of future sustainability. We provide information on capital components which should be targeted by policy makers in order to maintain future sustainability.

Keywords: future sustainability; sustainable development; genuine savings; simulation; future paths.

DOI: 10.1504/IJSD.2012.050029

International Journal of Sustainable Development, 2012 Vol.15 No.4, pp.293 - 312

Received: 19 May 2010
Accepted: 08 Apr 2011

Published online: 25 Oct 2012 *

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