Title: Decision making in a fast speed world: an early warning system for avoiding crises

Authors: Luigi Toma

Addresses: Department of Economics, American University, 4400 Massachusetts Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20016, USA

Abstract: Crisis management comes more naturally than managing to avoid crises because change can be so disruptive as to tear organisations apart. In this paper we suggest that: humankind has entered an era in which events unfold with unparalleled speed; and the speed of evolution will accelerate further. In today|s complex societal systems, the time of warning and decision is getting shorter and unless we modify our models of thinking by using new cognitive tools, such as ||images of the future||, any kind of algorithm applied to the present informational space is bound to fail when used to forecast change.

Keywords: mega-failures; speed of change; early warning indicators; perception; decision making; chaos theory; Enron; cognitive tools; foresight.

DOI: 10.1504/IJFIP.2004.004961

International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy, 2004 Vol.1 No.3/4, pp.218 - 231

Published online: 26 Jul 2004 *

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