Title: Prediction of energy consumption of passenger transportation and GHG emissions in Jordan

Authors: Jamal O. Jaber; Ahmed M. Al-Ghandoor; Ismael Al-Hinti; Salameh A. Sawallha

Addresses: Faculty of Engineering Technology, Al-Balqa' Applied University, P.O.Box: 15008, Amman 11134, Jordan ' Depaertment of Industrial Engineering, Hashemite University, P.O. Box: 150459, Zarqa 13115, Jordan ' Department of Mechatronics Engineering, School of Applied Technical Science, P.O. Box: 35247, Amman 11180, German Jordanian University, Jordan ' Faculty of Engineering, Northern Border University, P.O Box: 1321, Arar 91431, KSA

Abstract: In this paper, the structure of the Jordanian transport sector is analysed with focus on passenger cars, which represent 65% of total vehicles and responsible for almost all of the national gasoline fuel demand. In order to achieve the objectives of this study, an empirical model is developed based on multivariate linear regression analysis to identify key drivers that influence gasoline consumption. In addition, possible impacts of introducing diesel powered saloon cars, as an energy efficiency measure to the passenger cars market, on the future energy demand and associated reduction in GHG emissions are analysed and evaluated using different scenarios. Based on the conducted analysis, it was found that the number of cars, income level and unit gasoline price are the most important variables that affect present and future gasoline demand. The obtained results proved that the multivariate linear regression models can be used adequately to simulate gasoline consumption with very high coefficient of determination. Without the introduction of diesel driven cars, gasoline consumption is expected to rise by approximately 88.8% within the next decade. However, such category of cars are allowed to replace some of the existing fleet, on a gradual basis, gasoline consumption as well as GHG emissions are forecasted to increase but at a lower rates. But this requires concerned governmental institutions to take necessary actions and adopt feasible policies aiming to encourage use of diesel driven cars in Jordan.

Keywords: energy consumption; passenger transport; gasoline; petrol; diesel; GHG emissions; greenhouse gases; multivariate regression; Jordan; passenger cars; fuel consumption; fuel demand; vehicle emissions.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2012.048457

International Journal of Global Warming, 2012 Vol.4 No.2, pp.90 - 112

Received: 31 Oct 2011
Accepted: 19 Feb 2012
Published online: 13 Dec 2014 *

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