Title: Dynamic growth in a photovoltaic market

Authors: Charles A. Jones

Addresses: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School, 79 John F. Kennedy Street, Box 134, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA

Abstract: The growth of a new industry is a dynamic process governed by both reinforcing and goal seeking feedback, which are in turn created by entrepreneurs, policy-makers, industry leaders and other actors. In this paper I present a system dynamics model of the growth of a new industry based on the features of a local photovoltaic market. The model includes features unique to the adoption of renewable energy, along with some applicable to a growing industry in general. Analysis reveals important lessons for policy and strategy: building strong feedback and coordinated and sustained action are the highest leverage interventions for growth.

Keywords: photovoltaic industry; system dynamics; energy policies; industry strategies; market growth; institutional entrepreneurship; dynamic growth; photovoltaic markets; new industries; dynamic processes; reinforcing feedback; goal seeking feedback; entrepreneurs; policy-makers; industry leaders; coordinated action; sustained action; leverage interventions; Massachusetts; USA; United States; technology; management; solar energy; renewable energy.

DOI: 10.1504/IJTPM.2012.046921

International Journal of Technology, Policy and Management, 2012 Vol.12 No.2/3, pp.101 - 114

Published online: 31 Dec 2014 *

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