Title: A fuzzy expert system model to deal with supply chain disturbances

Authors: Isabel L. Nunes; V. Cruz Machado

Addresses: Departamento Engenharia Mecânica e Industrial, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Campus de Caparica, 2829-516 Caparica, Portugal; Centro de Tecnologia e Sistemas – UNINOVA, Campus de Caparica, 2829-516 Caparica, Portugal. ' Departamento Engenharia Mecânica e Industrial, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Campus de Caparica, 2829-516 Caparica, Portugal; Unidade de Investigação em Engenharia Mecânica e Industrial, FCT/UNL, Campus de Caparica, 2829-516 Caparica, Portugal

Abstract: A fuzzy expert system methodology is proposed, based on the combination of bow-tie diagrams and fuzzy set theory. It was designed to support the management of supply-chain (SC) disturbances. Such disturbances are understood as risks to the SC. This methodology includes a phased process starting with the analysis of potential disturbances using cause-and-effect diagrams, followed by a bow-tie analysis relating disturbances, causes, barriers and consequences, used to derive fuzzy rules applied in the SC risk assessment, and ending with advice on mitigating measures to control the consequences of disturbances. The evaluation of the methodology based on scenarios offered promising results about its capabilities.

Keywords: supply chain disturbances; fuzzy set theory; fuzzy expert systems; bow-tie analysis; cause-and-effect diagrams; SCM; supply chain management; phased processes; potential disturbances; barriers; consequences; fuzzy rules; risk assessments; mitigating measures; decision sciences; risk management.

DOI: 10.1504/IJDSRM.2012.046622

International Journal of Decision Sciences, Risk and Management, 2012 Vol.4 No.1/2, pp.127 - 151

Received: 15 Aug 2011
Accepted: 26 Dec 2011

Published online: 02 May 2012 *

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