Title: Decision tree analysis for project risk mitigation options for underground metro rail project

Authors: Debasis Sarkar

Addresses: Construction and Project Management Department, Faculty of Technology, CEPT University, Ahmedabad – 380009, Gujarat, India

Abstract: Risk mitigation is an integral facet of project risk management for infrastructure projects. Complex infrastructure transportation projects like construction of underground corridor for metro rail operations are subject to various risks and uncertainties through all the phases of the project like feasibility, development, execution and operation. Project risks primarily deal with the risks and uncertainties pertaining to project schedule and cost, particularly for the feasibility, development and execution phases. Maximum risks occur during the execution phase. These risks need to be mitigated through the risk mitigation tools. Carrying out proper risk management process would enable the project authorities to identify a number of options for risk mitigation. This paper aims to develop a tool through decision tree analysis (DTA) to enable decision making about the most feasible option that the project authorities should adopt so that the project is executed most effectively and economically within the stipulated time and cost frame.

Keywords: decision trees; project risks; risk mitigation; underground corridors; Delhi Metro Rail Corporation; DMRC; India; underground railways; public transport; decision tree analysis; infrastructure projects; transportation projects; uncertainty; project schedules; project costs; feasibility phases; development phases; execution phases; maximum risks; project authorities; option identification; decision making; feasible options; time frames; cost frames; decision sciences; risk management.

DOI: 10.1504/IJDSRM.2012.046613

International Journal of Decision Sciences, Risk and Management, 2012 Vol.4 No.1/2, pp.25 - 37

Received: 02 Mar 2011
Accepted: 25 Oct 2011

Published online: 02 May 2012 *

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