Title: A Monte Carlo approach to forecasting the demand for offshore supply vessels

Authors: Floriano C.M. Pires Jr; Augusto R. Antoun

Addresses: Ocean Engineering Department, Graduate School of Engineering, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil ' Ocean Engineering Department, Graduate School of Engineering, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Abstract: In the near future, the demand for offshore supply vessels in Brazil will be driven by the activities induced by the bids carried out by the regulatory agency, ANP. The likely tendency is to increase the number of bids and consequently, the demand for vessels in the coming years. The proposed model consists of a Monte Carlo simulation of the offshore oil exploration and production projects. The model considers some parameters that aim at capturing the effect of the operators patterns, water depth, duration of seismic research and exploration and drilling work, number of wells, geographic location and geological risk. An estimate is obtained for the additional offshore supply vessels demand, for the period of 2006-2008.

Keywords: offshore vessels market; supply vessels demand; offshore supply vessels; Brazil; Monte Carlo simulation; offshore oil exploration; offshore oil production; demand forecasting.

DOI: 10.1504/IJCAT.2012.046315

International Journal of Computer Applications in Technology, 2012 Vol.43 No.3, pp.280 - 284

Received: 08 May 2021
Accepted: 12 May 2021

Published online: 02 Apr 2012 *

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