Title: The use of gravity concepts for agricultural land-use dynamics: a case study on the Algarve

Authors: Eric De Noronha Vaz; Teresa De Noronha Vaz; Peter Nijkamp

Addresses: Faculty of Economics and CIEO (Research Centre for Spatial and Organizational Dynamics), University of the Algarve, Campus de Gambelas, Building 9, 8005–139 Faro, Portugal. ' Faculty of Economics and CIEO (Research Centre for Spatial and Organizational Dynamics), University of the Algarve, Campus de Gambelas, Building 9, 8005–139 Faro, Portugal. ' Department of Spatial Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Free University, De Boelelaan 1105, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands

Abstract: Recent research emphasises the role of small towns as main players in the spatial dynamics of rural areas. However, it is still largely unknown how much such urban areas generate planned development or growth in nearby surroundings, and how such small urban agglomerations attract and diffuse multiple activities in rural areas. This paper discusses the issue of socio-economic feasibility of rural areas from a long-term strategic perspective and proposes a new spatial land-cover accounting methodology to assess the impacts and changes occurring in the rural world, with a particular view to the pulling forces in small towns. Methodologically, this paper applies gravity concepts in combination with GIS to identify the compactness of agricultural areas within different regions of the Algarve and to detect the direction of significance of land-use variations. By means of time series and comparative analyses of different agricultural land, important land use changes can be identified.

Keywords: gravity models; land use change; Algarve; Portugal; CORINE land cover; gravity concepts; agricultural land; small towns; spatial dynamics; rural areas; urban agglomerations; planned development; planned growth; multiple activities; socio-economic feasibility; long-term perspectives; strategic perspectives; accounting methodologies; pulling forces; impact assessments; GIS; geographic information systems; compactness; agricultural areas; regions; land use variations; time series; comparative analyses; foresight; innovation policies; agriculture; sustainability; sustainable development.

DOI: 10.1504/IJFIP.2012.046113

International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy, 2012 Vol.8 No.2/3, pp.262 - 271

Published online: 21 Nov 2014 *

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